Good morning, Court Theorists! ☕️
Today’s tennis mood: Bewilderment + supreme curiosity.
We’re finally starting to get some clearer pictures of how the top players are performing ahead of Australian Open main draw matches on Sunday. And with qualifying ending today, plus Adelaide, Hobart, and Auckland reaching the quarterfinals, we’re getting a sense of who might present the challenges. At the moment, it’s quite a mixed bag, but I’m most excited about this Mboko-Keys match. And let’s not forget how an amateur won the One Point Slam this year.
Let’s tennis!
-Allen
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🎾 Stolen: Nishesh Basavareddy took advantage of a huge mental error by his opponent, Sebastian Ofner, in Australian Open qualifying on Wednesday. The 29-year-old Austrian raised his arms and marched toward the net at 7-1 in the third-set tiebreak. One problem: The deciding set tiebreak is a 10-pointer. Mentally, Ofner never fully recovered (despite earning two match points), and Basavareddy walked away with the win, 13-11.
What he said: “I saw him tense up a little bit,” Basavareddy said after the match, adding, “generally when that happens, you start overthinking like, ‘Oh, I thought I already won the match, through to the next round.’ So yeah, that definitely gave me a little bit of hope.”
Yes, but: As incredible as that win was, Basavareddy’s “choke celebration” wasn’t.
🎾 Speaking of qualifying: We’re at the final round Australian Open qualifying, and this is some of the most compelling tennis you’ll see all year. This is the round that can change lives in terms of prize money, ranking points, and exposure. Definitely watch a match or two, if you can.
🎾 Looking at 2027: The ATP released the 2027 schedule on Wednesday, and apart from a couple of tournaments flip-flopping weeks, it’s exactly the same as 2026. Notably missing is the Masters 1000 in Saudi Arabia, which, at the time of the announcement, is supposed to hit the calendar by 2028. That means no deal has yet been brokered to make space for it on the calendar just yet.
🎾 One to watch: Madison Keys vs. Victoria Mboko (Quarterfinals - WTA 500 - Adelaide): Watch this one because Victoria Mboko is one of the most joyous players (and fastest risers) in all of professional tennis. On the other side of the court, Madison Keys is facing the pressure of everything she did at this time last year. Those two elements combined make for a fascinating match-up before we even get into the massive ball-striking we should expect from these two. The outcome of this match may well be decided by their serves, which have a tendency to go off the rails.
The record: This will be the first time Mboko and Keys face each other.
On the line: As last year’s champ, Keys has 500 points to defend this week, and she wants to feel strong going into Melbourne next week, where she has 2000 points to defend as the Australian Open defending champion. As for Mboko, there’s no points pressure, because this time last year she was making her way through the ITF circuit.
🎾 🏆 🎤 YOUR CALL
(Yesterday’s poll results: 75% of you said that Alex Michelsen would defeat Marcos Giron. Giron won the match, 6-4, 6-4.)
And that’s game.
