Good morning, Court Theorists! ☕️
Today’s tennis mood: Bewilderment + supreme curiosity.
We’re finally starting to get some clearer pictures of how the top players are performing ahead of Australian Open main draw matches on Sunday. And with qualifying ending today, plus Adelaide, Hobart, and Auckland reaching the quarterfinals, we’re getting a sense of who might present the challenges. At the moment, it’s quite a mixed bag, but I’m most excited about this Mboko-Keys match. And let’s not forget how an amateur won the One Point Slam this year.
Let’s tennis!
-Allen
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🎾 Stolen: Nishesh Basavareddy took advantage of a huge mental error by his opponent, Sebastian Ofner, in Australian Open qualifying on Wednesday. The 29-year-old Austrian raised his arms and marched toward the net at 7-1 in the third-set tiebreak. One problem: The deciding set tiebreak is a 10-pointer. Mentally, Ofner never fully recovered (despite earning two match points), and Basavareddy walked away with the win, 13-11.
What he said: “I saw him tense up a little bit,” Basavareddy said after the match, adding, “generally when that happens, you start overthinking like, ‘Oh, I thought I already won the match, through to the next round.’ So yeah, that definitely gave me a little bit of hope.”
Yes, but: As incredible as that win was, Basavareddy’s “choke celebration” wasn’t.
🎾 Speaking of qualifying: We’re at the final round Australian Open qualifying, and this is some of the most compelling tennis you’ll see all year. This is the round that can change lives in terms of prize money, ranking points, and exposure. Definitely watch a match or two, if you can.
🎾 Looking at 2027: The ATP released the 2027 schedule on Wednesday, and apart from a couple of tournaments flip-flopping weeks, it’s exactly the same as 2026. Notably missing is the Masters 1000 in Saudi Arabia, which, at the time of the announcement, is supposed to hit the calendar by 2028. That means no deal has yet been brokered to make space for it on the calendar just yet.
🎾 One to watch: Madison Keys vs. Victoria Mboko (Quarterfinals - WTA 500 - Adelaide): Watch this one because Victoria Mboko is one of the most joyous players (and fastest risers) in all of professional tennis. On the other side of the court, Madison Keys is facing the pressure of everything she did at this time last year. Those two elements combined make for a fascinating match-up before we even get into the massive ball-striking we should expect from these two. The outcome of this match may well be decided by their serves, which have a tendency to go off the rails.
The record: This will be the first time Mboko and Keys face each other.
On the line: As last year’s champ, Keys has 500 points to defend this week, and she wants to feel strong going into Melbourne next week, where she has 2000 points to defend as the Australian Open defending champion. As for Mboko, there’s no points pressure, because this time last year she was making her way through the ITF circuit.
🎾 🏆 🎤 YOUR CALL
(Yesterday’s poll results: 75% of you said that Alex Michelsen would defeat Marcos Giron. Giron won the match, 6-4, 6-4.)
And that’s game.
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Matches we’re monitoring today:
Adelaide - WTA 500 (Hard)
Mirra Andreeva vs. Maya Joint (Quarterfinals)
Diana Shnaider vs. Emma Navarro (Quarterfinals)
Hobart - WTA 250 (Hard)
Emma Raducanu vs. Taylah Preston (Quarterfinals)
Iva Jovic vs. Magda Linette (Quarterfinals)
Adelaide - ATP 250 (Hard)
Aleksandar Vukic vs. Tommy Paul (Quarterfinals)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Valentin Vacherot (Quarterfinals)
Auckland - ATP 250 (Hard)
Luciano Darderi vs. Marcos Giron (Quarterfinals)
Ben Shelton vs. Sebastian Baez (Quarterfinals)
Eliot Spizziri vs. Fabian Marozsan (Quarterfinals)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Jakub Mensik (Quarterfinals)
Melbourne - Australian Open Qualifying (Hard)
There are truly too many good matches to list in this space, so go check out today’s full schedule. But there are a few we here at Court Theory HQ just won’t miss.
Michael Zheng vs. Lukas Klein
Stefano Travaglia vs. Dane Sweeny
Elias Ymer vs. Coleman Wong
Taylor Townsend vs. Storm Hunter
Lucia Bronzetti vs. Sloane Stephens
Player vs. Player (Round)
Player vs. Player (Round)
📺 Learn how to watch today’s action over at Tennis Watchers.
💬 For real-time match commentary and conversation, follow Court Theory on Bluesky.
You will most certainly want to read this piece by Tumaini Carayol on Felix Auger-Aliassime’s insistence to “do something” in Togo.
The One Point Slam keeps getting better.
Mirra Andreeva says she’s entering 2026 with a refreshed mindset.
Ben Shelton says he’s “knocking off the rust.”
At The Guardian, Tumaini Carayol gets into The Battle of the Practice Courts.
Are you uncultured?
