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Fonseca Struggles, Federer Sells Out, Ball Beef Continues, Mboko vs. Rybakina & More

Plus, Bublik runs his mouth again!

by Allen McDuffee

Feb 12, 2026

FIRST SERVE

THE DAILY THEORY

Fonseca Struggles, Federer Sells Out, Ball Beef Continues, Mboko vs. Rybakina & More

Good morning, Court Theorists! ☕️

Today’s tennis mood: Impressed plus quite concerned.

Let’s tennis!
-Allen

(New to Court Theory? Sign up for free!)

🎾 Rough start: Joao Fonseca suffered another early exit on Wednesday, making him winless in 2026 thus far. Alejandro Tabilo, currently ranked 71 in the world, took down the Brazilian, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5.

  • What he said: "I was very connected with the team. They helped me through it all," Tabilo said after the match. "A lot of nerves at the end, but I feel like we played a very good game, very smart tactics and just outlasted him. I knew he was going to come out swinging, and I just had to be very solid."

  • Noteworthy: Tabilo’s comments underscore something we’ve been pointing out at Court Theory: Fonseca has a tendency to overcook the ball when he faces solid opponents. His power overwhelmed juniors, but that strategy alone doesn’t work against men who can absorb his pace. So far, he hasn’t adjusted. But his uneven results in 2025 and his rough start to 2026 should be a wake-up call.

🎾 Withdrawal report: Some top players have withdrawn from the Middle East swing again next week. Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka have pulled out of Dubai after missing Doha this week. And Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from Doha next week, citing fatigue.

  • Noteworthy: We call it the Happy Slam, but we often underestimate how much the tennis Down Under takes out of players right at the start of the year. And that must raise some serious questions for the ATP as it considers adding the Saudi 1000 into this part of the year.

🎾 The ball report: Earlier this week, we called out Daniil Medvedev’s most recent complaint about the balls on tour — this time in Rotterdam, and this time the Head Tour XT. Since then, other players have chimed in to support Medvedev’s ball beef.

  • What he said: “I have struggled a lot in practice. I have actually been quite frustrated with the balls in practice, which is not like me. I do get what Daniil says about the balls,” Alex de Minaur told Bolavip.com. “They are definitely not my favorite. I don’t think they are anyone’s favorite balls. They are very difficult to control.”

  • And what he said: “They are terrible. Really terrible. The ball is very bad. It is unbelievable,” Arthur Fils said. “When we are playing at this level, literally playing professionally, very good players, then watching the balls after two games getting bigger and very slow, that is not normal.” He added: “I don’t know who is in charge of it, maybe ATP or whatever, but they have to do better, because it is not normal to play with these balls at our level.”

  • Noteworthy: If you’ve got Alex de Minaur irritated, it’s time to check yo’self.

🎾 One to watch: Victoria Mboko vs. Elena Rybakina (Quarterfinals WTA 1000 - Doha): Watch this one because it’s always a battle. Expect big groundies from both, with Mboko using her athletic ability to absorb the Rybakina power. This one will likely be settled by which player has the better serving day.

  • The record: Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head over Victoria Mboko 2-1.

  • On the line: For Mboko, a win represents a chance to break into the top 10. On Rybakina’s side of the net, this tournament is to show she can maintain the level of play that won her the Australian Open, while taking the opportunity to close the gap in ranking points after Aryna Sabalenka sat this week out.

🎾 🏆 🎤 YOUR CALL

Who do you want to win today?
  • Victoria Mboko
  • Elena Rybakina

Login or Subscribe to participate

(Yesterday’s poll results: 75% of you wanted Elena Rybakina to defeat Qinwen Zheng in Doha. Rybakina won the match 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.)

And that’s game.

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Now booking: Indian Wells, Roland-Garros, Wimbledon & more!

Matches we’re monitoring today:

Doha - WTA 1000 (Hard)

  • Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto (Quarterfinals)

  • Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari (Quarterfinals)

  • Karolina Muchova vs. Anna Kalinskaya (Quarterfinals)

Dallas - ATP 500 (Hard)

  • Ethan Quinn vs. Marin Cilic (2nd rd)

  • Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic (2nd rd)

  • Adrian Mannarino vs. Ben Shelton (2nd rd)

  • Tommy Paul vs. Miomir Kecmanovic (2nd rd)

  • Jack Pinington Jones vs. Eliot Spizzirri (2nd rd)

Rotterdam - ATP 500 (Hard)

  • Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (2nd rd)

  • Alex de Minaur vs. Stan Wawrinka (2nd rd)

  • Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alexander Bublik (2nd rd)

Buenos Aires - ATP 250 (Clay)

  • Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Pedro Martinez (2nd rd)

  • Ignacio Ruse vs. Sebastian Baez (2nd rd)

  • Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Mariano Navone (2nd rd)

📺 Learn how to watch today’s action over at Tennis Watchers.

💬 For real-time match commentary and conversation, follow Court Theory on Bluesky.

  • Recommendation: Go watch yesterday’s match between Victoria Mboko and Mirra Andreeva. If you can’t, definitely watch these highlights.

  • The same goes for Tommy Paul vs. Jenson Brooksby.

  • This is what it’s like to be Zeynep Sonmez.

  • Roger Federer’s Hall of Fame ceremony sold out in two minutes.

  • Marin Cilic reflects on his career after logging 600 wins in Dallas.

  • Get to know Jack Pinnington Jones, the Dallas qualifier who faces Eliot Spizzirri today.

  • Elena Rybakina chooses a Winter Olympics sport.

Read More

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