Good morning, Court Theorists! ☕️☀️
Today’s tennis mood: Bracing for an Alcaraz update and sitting on the edge of my seat for the final spot in the WTA Tour Finals semis.
Let’s tennis!
-Allen
🎾 On tap: It’s the final day of the group stage in Indian Wells, with Mirra Andreeva guaranteed in the semifinals and Karolina Muchova ruled out. That leaves Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina battling for the final spot. In Stockholm, it’s semifinals day. In action: Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti, Alejandro Tabilo, and Thiago Agustin Tirante. Catch the full rundown below.
🎾 Inbox: Yesterday, I asked you which group was tougher in the ATP Tour Finals, Group John McEnroe or Group Ivan Lendl, and 60% of you said Group John McEnroe. That was my pick, too. But a 60/40 split deserves a reevaluation. Perhaps whatever group Carlos Alcaraz appears in automatically becomes the toughest group (and Medvedev has turned it on in the last few months, too).
Yes, but: In my mind, it’s the depth of the group that weighs the most in this calculation. And post-U.S. Open, Tiafoe and Cobolli have been struggling, while Shelton, Jodar, and Fils have gone deep in tournaments, even if there have also been some puzzling losses.
🎾 One to watch: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina (Group Stage - WTA Tour Finals - Indian Wells): Watch this one for the competitive drama of knowing there’s just one spot left in the semifinals. Sabalenka typically overpowers Svitolina, but at the moment all bets are off. Might that be an opportunity for the 2018 Tour Finals champ to make her way through?
The record: Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 6-1.
On the line: For both players, this is all about the final spot in the semifinals. For Sabalenka, there’s another level if she loses. She will end the year without a major for the first time since 2022 and with a sour taste in her mouth for not advancing in the WTA Tour Finals for the first time since 2021.
🎾 🏆 🎤 YOUR CALL
(Yesterday’s poll results: 57% of you called for Linda Noskova to defeat Jessica Pegula. Pegula won 7-6, 4-6, 7-5.)
And that’s game.
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