👋 Welcome back to The Daily Theory, our morning rundown to help you stay on top of your favorite sport. I’m Allen McDuffee, your guide to all things tennis.

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Today’s tennis mood rating: Calm with a hint of optimism.

Let’s tennis!

Three Points

🎾 One big gap: The recurring theme on the ATP Tour this year is that it’s Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner — and then everyone else. It’s reflected in the ATP Race to Turin, in which only the top two have qualified. Not only that, but the gulf is so large in the live race rankings between Sinner at two and Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev tied at three (more than double with 8460 compared to 4190), that it means more than a dozen players are still in the running for the remaining six spots in Turin. All of that to say, as usual, Shanghai can make or break the end-of-the-year championships for many players. But, given how just 2000 points separate number three is and number 15, the final roster might not be settled for some time.

🎾 Still smarting: Jannik Sinner’s approach to his U.S. Open loss to Carlos Alcaraz is about as healthy as it gets. Still, it’s clear that match and losing the number one ranking is weighing on his mind as he enters the Masters 1000 in Shanghai with the possibility of meeting Alcaraz in the final. The recurring theme for Sinner in recent weeks is discussing the adjustments he needed (and needs) to make to avoid disappointments like New York and to keep up with Alcaraz. This week, however, he wants to maintain his veneer of calm by saying he’s just like everyone else.

  • What he said: “I’m not the only one who is changing,” Sinner said in Shanghai. “If you ask every player, every player is changing stuff and trying to get better. Whatever we try to do, it’s not crazy steps, just trying to adjust a couple of things, trying to get better as a player, like everyone else does. Certain shots that worked slightly better than the months before, certain shots we can still improve.” He added: “But it’s also normal, and I’m just looking forward to having as many matches as possible in every tournament. This gives me the chance to try as many things as possible. So, let’s see, but we are quite happy with the work we are doing.”
  • Next: Jannik Sinner faces Daniel Altmaier in the second round of Shanghai on Saturday.

🎾 A bounceback?: There’s no sugarcoating it. Emma Navarro has had a disappointing year after a steady rise and into the top 10 in 2024. She’s now battling to stay in the top 20 after a year of many early-round exits. But! In China, her game is looking sharper than it has nearly all year, which allowed her to take out Iga Swiatek in three sets on Wednesday. Yes, that was assisted by a wildly off-kilter Swiatek in the third set. However, that doesn’t undo how much better Navarro has looked all week at the WTA 1000 event in Beijing. Let’s keep an eye on her ability to string together more wins across tournaments this fall.

  • Next: Navarro faces Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals of Beijing on Friday.