👋 Welcome back to The Daily Theory, our morning rundown to help you stay on top of your favorite sport. I’m Allen McDuffee, your guide to all things tennis.

On tap today, we’ve got: Alexandra Eala magical run, the toll of Taylor Fritz’s win, Stan Wawrinka turns 40, Novak Djokovic takes on Grigor Dimitrov, Jakub Mensik faces Taylor Fritz, plus more tennis news today.

Let’s tennis!

Three Points

🎾 It’s not over, it’s just getting started: Alexandra Eala’s incredible run at the Miami Open came to a close in another incredible battle Thursday night (errrr...Friday morning) after the young Filipina fell to Jessica Pegula in three close sets, 7-6, 5-7, 6-3. But, by the crowd’s reaction to Eala’s two weeks in Miami, you could have easily believed she had won that match. In a way, she did. The 19-year-old earned more than $330,000 (almost as much as she’s pulled in her entire career). And she’ll jump up in the rankings from 140 to approximately 75 on Monday, which solidifies main draw entry to the majors this year — and that comes with a guaranteed six-figure payout at each of those events.

  • What she said: “To have a week like this, the stars need to align and they did this week, and hopefully I can keep that up — that is my goal now, to keep this up,” Eala said.
  • And what she said: “She’s really good. She’s a really good tennis player, goes for her shots, takes the ball early, competes really well, she’s beaten a lot of top players this week,” Pegula said after winning the match.“I don’t think she needs me to tell her that she’s a great player, that we’re not going to see enough of her. We definitely are, and she proved that tonight.”

🎾 Missing your chances: Taylor Fritz may have won his quarterfinal match against Matteo Berrettini on Thursday night, but it sure did take an unnecessary journey. The 27-year-old American squandered six match points in the second set — and once Berrettini had one set point, he took it in a tiebreak. It took another 7-5 set before Fritz could close it out, leaving his record against the Italian a perfect 5-0.

  • What’s next: With no more days off to recover, Fritz is back in action in the first match of the night session against Jakub Mensik, who was on court six hours earlier and about half as long.

🎾 Happy Birthday, Stanimal!: It’s the big four-oh for Stan Wawrinka today. And how will he be celebrating? By taking court in the quarterfinals of a 125 ATP Challenger, of course. He takes on top seed Luciano Darderi in Naples following yesterday’s win over Borna Coric, who was on a three-title winning streak. What better way to celebrate Wawrinka’s 40th than to watch him rip 40 backhand winners?

And, that’s game.

What They Said

Everything is happening in the right time. Of course last year I had great runs on some of the tournaments. This year as well. So everything is happening for a reason, and it’s all the time the right time. Never is too late; never is too early. That’s it.

-Jakub Mensik following his win over Arthur Fils on Thursday.

Watch These!

🔥 Novak Djokovic vs. Grigor Dimitrov (Semifinals ATP 1000 - Miami): Watch this one for the old school vibes. Expect lots of great ball striking with many long games. The big question is: How has Dimitrov recovered since that scary end to his quarterfinal match against Francisco Cerundolo. Next question: Who wins this one? History says Djokovic.

  • The record: Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head record over Grigor Dimitrov 12-1. Dimitrov has made Djokovic go the distance several times, but that sole win came more than a decade ago. Still, the last time they played was a year-and-a-half ago, and neither player is the same as they were then.
  • On the line: Dimitrov is just looking to play a good match and attempting to not get totally routined out there. Meanwhile, Djokovic is aiming to make quick work of Grigor so that he can conserve energy for Sunday’s final.

🔥 Jakub Mensik vs. Taylor Fritz (Semifinals ATP 1000 - Miami): This is a power match: easy power (Mensik) vs. full-body, everything you’ve got power (Fritz). Expect Fritz to test the shot tolerance of Mensik by making tons of extra balls before pulling the trigger on his own shots, while Mensik will hit through the court as much as he can. Freshness might decide the outcome of this match — and if it does, that weights heavily in the favor of Mensik, who had a straight set win earlier in the day. Fritz’s long night match may come back to bite him with less than 24 hours turnaround time.

  • The record: Taylor Fritz leads the head-to-head record over Jakub Mensik 1-0. It was a drubbing at the 2023 U.S. Open in which Mensik won only three games in three sets. In Mensik’s defense, he was a 17-year-old qualifier who had unexpectedly won two rounds in the main draw in addition to three rounds in qualies.
  • On the line: Fritz has had a disappointing year thus far with several early round losses. Making the semifinals is a step in the right direction, but losing to a player outside the top 50 is not. As for Mensik, he’s been waiting for a big breakthrough moment, and he got close in Shanghai last year when he took Novak Djokovic to three sets in the quarterfinals. Going up against an underperforming top five player in the semis of the Miami Open is a great opportunity.

📺 Learn how to watch today’s action over at Tennis Watchers.

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Which matches are you watching? What news caught your eye today? Hit the comments below!