👋 Welcome back to The Daily Theory, our morning rundown to help you stay on top of your favorite sport. I’m Allen McDuffee, your guide to all things tennis.

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Let’s tennis!

Four Points

🎾 Final #1: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner. At the moment (and for the foreseeable future), this is the final that most tennis fans want to see every tournament. Current form suggests Sinner will take this one — especially if Alcaraz has the concentration and performance dips he’s had in some of the previous rounds. At the same time, Sinner isn’t yet free from the nerves that can creep in against Alcaraz. Expect blistering groundies from both ends of the court and some truly wild court coverage by both players. This match may well come down to serving — and that’s to Sinner’s advantage.

  • What he said: “I’m excited about it. It’s going to be great,” Alcaraz said ahead of Monday’s final. “He won the last one, I won the first two finals, so I think it’s going to be really interesting. It’s the first final [between us this year] on a hard court, so I’m excited about taking that challenge. He added: “I know that Jannik, without a doubt, is the best player in the world on hard courts and probably on every surface right now, so it’s going to be a great match and I have to be ready for that.”
  • The record: Alcaraz leads the head-to-head record over Sinner, 8-5. Sinner won the last time they met on the lawns of Wimbledon, which interrupted Alcaraz’s five-match winning streak on hard and clay courts.
  • On the line: This isn’t about points, money, or even the title. For both players, this match is entirely about setting a stake in the ground before the U.S. Open. Because, if current form of the top of the game counts for anything, we’ll be seeing these two compete in the final in New York in just a few weeks.

🎾 Final #2: Iga Swiatek vs. Jasmine Paolini. Based on current form, this should be a straightforward match for Swiatek. Still, it’s a final, and nerves can still get the best of the Wimbledon champ at times. Expect Swiatek to go for it from the very first ball, and for Paolini to slow down the pace of the points and the tempo of the match as much she can until she can find her footing and a strategy that works.

  • The record: Swiatek leads the head-to-head record over Paolini, 5-0. In fact, with the exception of the one set Paolini took off Swiatek at Billie Jean King Cup last year, all of the matches have been blowouts.
  • On the line: With a win, Swiatek would jump up a spot in the rankings to number two. More than that, gaining a 1000 title going into the U.S. Open would be a nice confidence boost, given her uneven performances in New York.

🎾 Make it make sense: Yes, we’re still talking about the schedule. It’s beyond exciting to have the biggest blockbuster rivalry of Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner facing off in a heavily anticipated final right before the U.S. Open. But scheduling it at 3:00 p.m. on a Monday afternoon is truly baffling. Only marginally better is the women’s final a few hours later. As we’ve learned over the last couple of weeks, this wasn’t a decision made by tournament organizers. It was dictated by the ATP and WTA tours. Who benefits from this? That remains unclear. But it sure as hell isn’t the players or the fans.

🎾 Qualies kicks off: Today is the first day of U.S. Open qualifying, and there are some bonkers first-round match-ups worth sifting through.

  • Intriguing: Terence Atmane, who is coming off the tournament of his life by making the semifinals of Cincinnati, finds himself in qualies. He faces Jan Choinski, who is less than 20 spots behind the Frenchman in the rankings and is in excellent form going into this match.
  • An unexpected entry: Madison Brengle, the former world number 35 who is currently ranked 871, is unexpectedly in the qualifying draw. She faces sixth seed Varvara Gracheva in the first round.
  • Unfortunate first round: Dan Evans faces Lloyd Harris, which is kind of a shame, given both of their current attempts to get back into top form.
  • The links you need: today’s order of play, the women’s qualifying draw, the men’s qualifying draw.